Political Weather

A fantastic aspect of our modern times is that everyone can be an informed political forecaster. The insider knowledge that in the past was obtained within a tight-knit network of informants in high-ranking government offices and organizations is now readily available on Internet. For example, you can now access the (U.S.) tax-funded Institute for National Strategic Studies’ annual Global Strategic Assessment. You can also freely read Eurasia Group’s Top Ten Risks of 2009. Nonetheless, before you put your money where your mouth is, make sure you read this article by Philip Tetlock, who is the author of the excellent Expert Political Judgment.